New Threats Revealed at China’s Zhuhai Airshow

Although canceled in 2020 because of COVID-19, the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP’s) Zhuhai air, ground, and naval weapons show is staged every two years, primarily to show to the United States, Japan, and Taiwan the accelerating military investments it will use to defeat Taiwan, then subdue the United States and all other democracies on its way to global hegemony.

Its flight line exposure allowed viewing of production numbers, allowing PLA aircraft expert Andreas Rupprecht to estimate for Defense News that J-20 production may now exceed 200. This fighter has greater maneuverability, range, and stealth protection than the fourth-generation fighters of Japan, Taiwan, and the United States.

In a speech on July 16, 2009, on justifying the production termination of the Lockheed-Martin F-22A, the most capable U.S. fifth-generation fighter, at 187, Gates said China “is projected to have no fifth-generation aircraft by 2020.”

On the Zhuhai flight line, it was possible to see for the first time that the J-20’s airframe stealth paneling and coatings have a precision and finish that approached that of U.S. stealth fighters, likely aided by China’s late 2000s cyber espionage against Lockheed.

At a Nov. 8 press availability, former J-20 chief designer Yang Wei, who’s likely now leading China’s sixth-generation fighter program, told Chinese reporters that there would be a second and a third version of the J-20.

In 2016, Yang coauthored a paper that proposed a bomber or strike version of the J-20. In the early 2000s, the U.S. Air Force briefly considered a larger FB-22 bomber version of the F-22A, but the Bush administration rejected it.

On Nov. 3, a Xian Aircraft Corporation H-6K bomber arrived at Zhuhai with two large missiles on wing pylons. Although so far unidentified, they strongly resemble new second-generation short-range ballistic missiles that could have been made by the China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation (CASC) or the China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation (CASIC).

An H-6K may be able to carry up to four missiles. With an estimated air-launched range of more than 300 miles and capable of low hypersonic speeds, they would pose a greater threat than the CASIC 250-mile range and supersonic speed anti-ship YJ-12 cruise missile that’s currently in use.

The threat to U.S. and allied ships also increased at Zhuhai with the revelation of two new anti-ship ballistic missiles (ASBMs): the CASC YJ-21, a two-stage missile seen in 2021 being launched from a Type 055 cruiser, and the first display of the CASIC CM-103, which resembles early versions of the U.S. Raytheon SM-6 surface-to-air-missile.

The respective ranges for these missiles weren’t revealed, but a future U.S. Army ballistic version of the SM-6 may have a range of 1,200 miles.

China’s main PLA ground-force weapons maker, China North Industries Group Corporation (NORINCO), displayed this melding of unmanned and manned military operations in a poster display of its “New Generation Brigade Combat Team,” in which 7 out of 10 battalions employed unmanned combat and/or surveillance systems in cooperation with manned weapons.

Gaining some attention was a possible NORINCO four-legged “dog” robot armed with a QBB-97 light machine gun that can fire 650 rounds a minute—from a prone position.

As the United States and some of its allies are also working to develop new unmanned combat aerial vehicles (UCAVs) similar in size and performance to fighter aircraft to accompany manned fighters, bombers, and support aircraft, China revealed at Zhuhai that similar efforts are underway.

A new version of the CASC FH-97A unmanned escort/strike fighter showed an evolution from the first version revealed at the 2021 Zhuhai show, stressing new sensors that could enable unmanned and potentially artificial intelligence-enabled air-to-air combat capabilities.

The FH-97A, or the new fighter-size CAC CS-5000T flying wing UCAV, could also perform suppression of enemy air defense missions to assist manned strike aircraft missions or perform strike missions as well.

CAC also revealed its Wing Loong-3 (WL-3), a very large 13,600-pound turboprop-powered UCAV with a 40-hour endurance to enforce a blockade or attack targets. This is almost three times the endurance of the U.S. General Atomics MQ-9 Reaper that the WL-3 resembles.

Timed with the show, a Nov. 8 article in the CCP’s China Youth Daily quoted Zhao Xinguo, head of the Aerospace Department of the First Academy of CASC, saying for the first time that China’s first manned space launch vehicle for lunar missions, now called the Long March-5G, could make its first flight by 2027.

This means that both the astronaut-carrying and manned moon lander versions of the 27 tons of cargo to the moon-capable Long March-5G could be tested in time potentially to enable the first Chinese manned mission to the moon by 2029.

This means that former President Barack Obama’s 2010 decision to cancel former President George W. Bush’s constellation moon program has likely aided China’s arrival on the moon within two to three years of the U.S.-planned 2026 or 2027 return to the moon.

As such, the United States will gain little “head start” in building a strategic position on the moon to help deter China’s militarization of the moon, meaning conflict on the moon becomes more likely.