Analysts summarized that the reasons for the Republican underperformance as a combination of inflated expectations, underestimation of the strength of the abortion issue, performance in diverse communities, and the Youngkin and Trump factors.
Inflated Expectations Met Reality in Northern Virginia
“Republicans had tremendously inflated expectations about the Wexton race,” Richmond-based veteran political analyst Bob Holsworth told The Epoch Times. “Republicans have not been running well in Northern Virginia. And that district, even though it includes some Republican areas, is centered in Loudoun, where the Democrats have been running very well.“They [Republicans] watched Fox News that Loudoun is becoming a Republican county. It’s going the other way. It’s a Democratic county.”
For the Spanberger–Vega race, Holsworth said the quality of the candidate was a significant factor.
“[Spanberger] had been rated to be one of the more bipartisan members of Congress,” he said.
And the endorsement from the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) mattered, according to Holsworth.
He summarized Spanberger’s election results as a solid performance in Democrat-leaning areas, noting that the congresswoman was able to reduce Vega’s margin in more Republican-leaning areas, such as Stafford, Spotsylvania, and Orange counties, compared to Republican Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s gubernatorial race last year.
Abortion Issue and Getting Votes from Diverse Communities
Ron Wright, cofounder of the Suburban Virginia Republican Coalition, told The Epoch Times that Republicans “underestimated the strength of the abortion issue” and didn’t do well in diverse communities, such as black, Hispanic, and Asian communities.“In Florida, I think they’ve done a great job in reaching out to the Hispanic community and building a strong base there. I think the Republican Party of Virginia needs work,” he said.
Wright said the growth in northern Virginia is in Loudoun and Prince William counties, the exurban areas outside Washington. And those communities are diverse.
“The Republican Party is not reaching the diverse communities,” he said.
Holsworth agreed that Republicans underestimated the abortion issue.
“There’s no doubt about that nationally,“ he said. ”And here, it’s a 60–40 issue in Virginia in the Democrats’ favor.”
As for the Spanberger–Vega race, Wright thought Spanberger won by doing well in diverse communities and having raised much more money to pay for door-knocking to drive the turnout.
‘Each Election Is Its Own’
Wright didn’t think there was complacency on Vega’s part due to having Youngkin’s support but acknowledged that “big rallies don’t always turn into large votes.”Holsworth’s view is that “it’s always difficult to transfer your popularity.”
“My thinking is that it was very difficult for him [Youngkin] that he found out that each election is its own election,” he said.
In addition to Youngkin’s considerable support in funding and rally appearances, Vega also received former President Donald Trump’s endorsement in late October.
“The emergence of Trump in the last couple of months of the election more visibly on the public stage again reminded Virginians, particularly in northern Virginia, that they don’t like him,” Holsworth said, noting that Trump wanted to “drain the swamp” and many in northern Virginia work in the swamp.
Therefore, many independents in northern Virginia see Trump’s anti-government message as a threat, according to Holsworth.
The analyst said Vega didn’t play up Trump’s endorsement because she knew Trump wasn’t popular in northern Virginia.
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