However, it also noted that growth advantage estimates are only from the United States, so the organization rated its confidence in their escalation assessment as “low,” while warning the variant could more easily evade protective measures.
Steep Rise in Cases
By end of December 2022, XBB.1.5 accounted for just under 12 percent of infections, but by the first week of January, that number has risen to 43 percent, according to CDC data.Jha said that while XBB.1.5 could be more contagious, but it’s still unclear whether it causes more severe disease.
“Over time, the SARS-Cov-2 ancestral strain has been replaced by variants which are more easily transmissible and immune-evasive,” Dr. Miriam Smith, chief of infectious disease at Long Island Jewish Forest Hills in Queens, told The Epoch Times.
“Most recently, the XBB.1.5 subvariant arose through genetic recombination between other Omicron variants,” she continued.
Most Transmissible COVID-19 Variant Yet
Last week, the New York City Department of Health announced that Omicron XBB.1.5 accounted for 73 percent of all sequenced COVID-19 cases in the nation’s most populated city.“It may be more likely to infect people who have been vaccinated or previously had COVID-19 compared to prior variants,” the agency cautioned.
According to the most current CDC data, the Northeastern United States is most affected by XBB.1.5, with around 80 percent of cases in the region being caused by the variant.
Dr. Eric Cioè-Peña, director of Global Health for Northwell Health, explained that XBB.1.5 is different in similar ways that previous variants differed from what was circulating when they emerged.
This means it has many mutations that help it dodge existing immunity and is very infectious.
“It takes less time with someone who’s sick, and less quantity of viral exposure to get infected,” said Cioè-Peña.
But does this mean it’s an entirely new variant—something novel that COVID-19 vaccines may not work against? Cioè-Peña said it is, and it isn’t.
“COVID vaccines are less effective in preventing infection,” he said. “Until now, it seems like they are still effective in protecting you once you are infected, from needing oxygen, hospitalization, or [from dying].”
However, it’s still too early to tell if the vaccine will continue to provide protection from XBB.1.5.
The New Bivalent Vaccine
In December 2022, the CDC reported that the bivalent vaccines had demonstrated protection against hospitalization and mortality versus the unvaccinated population or recipients who have been vaccinated and boosted—especially for those 65 years of age or older.“This protection has been shown to hold for the XBB.1.5 subvariant as well,” said Smith.
The elderly population, patients with major underlying co-morbid conditions that put them at risk for severe disease, and patients with underlying immunosuppressive disorders should receive the bivalent vaccine, advised Smith.
However, she emphasized that while not yet clearly known, “the durability of the protective effect from these vaccines will likely decrease after six months.”
But the shots are controversial.
As the virus mutates over time, is it possible that available vaccines won’t offer any protection against a new variant? Could we, at some point, be facing a new and deadlier phase of the pandemic?
“That’s always a risk,” said Cioè-Peña, “but the more we get ‘used’ to COVID, immunity-wise, the less chance [there is] of that occurring.”
He added that there’s always a risk that there could be a major shift, “almost so it’s a completely new coronavirus,” and that could be a game changer for the pandemic.
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